[SMM Survey Daily Briefing] 20260121

[SMM Daily Coking Coal and Coke Briefing]

Coking Coal Market:

The offer price for low-sulphur coking coal in Linfen is 1,630 yuan/mt. The offer price for low-sulphur coking coal in Tangshan is 1,450 yuan/mt.

In terms of raw material fundamentals, mine production is stable, coking coal supply is gradually increasing, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is relatively good. Overall mine inventory continues its downward trend. However, coking enterprises are operating at a loss, leading to limited acceptance of high-priced coal grades, and prices for these grades continue to be adjusted downward. In summary, coking coal prices are expected to experience minor adjustments in the short term.

Coke Market:

The nationwide average price for first-grade metallurgical coke - dry quench is 1,735 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke - dry quench is 1,595 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for first-grade metallurgical coke - wet quench is 1,390 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke - wet quench is 1,300 yuan/mt.

Supply side, coking enterprises maintain moderate production enthusiasm, with coke production remaining relatively stable, focusing on active shipments. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm is also moderate, leading to a decrease in coke inventory at coking enterprises. Demand side, affected by the off-season, daily average hot metal output at steel mills is expected to decline. Additionally, as coke inventory at most steel mills is at reasonable levels, their coke purchasing is primarily need-based, and they currently do not accept coke price increases. In summary, sentiment in the ferrous metals market has weakened, and steel mills are resistant to the first round of coke price increases. In the short term, coking enterprises and steel mills may be in a stalemate.[SMM Steel]